China'S Export Growth Will Slow In The Coming Months, And The Trade Surplus Will Further Expand.

July 22nd report:

Zhang Ji, director of the Department of electrical and technology industries of Ministry of Commerce, said that at present, the trade situation at home and abroad is more complex and severe.

China's export volume increased by 24% in the first half of this year to 874 billion 300 million US dollars, down from 35.2% in the same period last year, while China's total foreign trade grew by 25.8% to 1 trillion and 700 billion dollars in the first half of this year, according to figures from the General Administration of customs of China.

Over the past few months, the growth of China's exports has been declining, and its growth rate has dropped from 37.7% in January to 17.9% in June.

Zhang Jicheng: "from the customs data should be good, but in-depth analysis, has released the important signal of the tight foreign trade environment, the whole trend is downward."

Zhang Ji also said that export growth will continue to decline in the second half of this year as factors like labor and raw material costs rise, appreciation of the renminbi and China's tightening policy.

"The export of the entire foreign trade is the trend of the former and the latter. Some enterprises may have some difficulties.

It's normal to die a lot. "

Yao Jian, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a recent press conference that the Chinese government would take a series of measures to stabilize exports, such as export tax rebates, financial and credit insurance, based on the consideration of export decline in the second half of the year.

Recently, there are reports that some textile factories in Dongguan are at risk of closure.

Zhang Ji said that the future may not exclude the possibility of some enterprises going bankrupt, but it is also a good timing for structural adjustment.

"But most enterprises will survive, and some enterprises will become stronger."

Favorable balance expansion

Despite the decline in China's export growth, Zhang Ji predicted that China's trade surplus will increase in the second half of the year.

"The surplus is low before and after high," Zhang Ji said.

From 1 to June, China's trade surplus decreased by 18.2% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 44 billion 930 million US dollars.

In February this year, China's monthly trade deficit was $7 billion 310 million, and its surplus in March turned into a favorable balance. After that, the surplus increased gradually, and in June, the figure reached US $22 billion 270 million.

Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, said that on the one hand, China's overseas orders in the fourth quarter will grow rapidly due to the advent of Christmas; on the other hand, the prices of some imported commodities will decline, and the surplus in the second half of this year is likely to exceed the first half of the year.

In January, China's imports grew by 51%, compared with 19.3% in June.

In addition, because of the slowdown in the economy and the tightening of policies, many people worry that the growth of China's imports will also slow down.

The International Monetary Fund reported on Thursday that China's major trading partners were worried that the rapid growth of China's economy could not continue, and China's economy could face a hard landing.