The Low Profile Of Foreign Trade Entered The "13Th Five-Year"

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Exports of labor-intensive products increased significantly, while technology intensive exports were relatively stable.

In February, China's foreign trade situation is still not optimistic.

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs in March 8th, the total value of China's imports and exports in February was 1 trillion and 430 billion yuan, down 15.7% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports were 821 billion 800 million yuan and imports were 612 billion 300 million yuan, down by 20.6% and 8% respectively.

In dollar terms, export growth in February dropped by 25.4% over the same period last year, the lowest level since June 2009.

In this regard, Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, told reporters: "the import of China's main export markets has been picking up since the fourth quarter of last year.

This shows that the current export downturn has little to do with external demand.

Whether China's foreign trade can achieve stability this year will depend on whether the cost side of the supply side can be effective and whether the export structure can be upgraded.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, may be going on for some time.

Spring Festival has little or no effect.

The import and export situation is still weak this year.

Customs statistics show that in the first two months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 3 trillion and 310 billion yuan, down 12.6% from the same period last year.

Of which, exports were 1 trillion and 960 billion yuan, down 13.1% compared to the same period last year; imports were 1 trillion and 350 billion yuan, down 11.8% compared to the same period last year; the trade surplus was 615 billion 900 million yuan, narrowing 15.9%.

For the current foreign trade situation, Bai Ming told reporters directly: "this situation was only seen in the 2008 and 2009 international financial crisis."

Insiders pointed out that because of the early impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the production, inventory and delivery of the enterprises earlier than last year, the reference frame in this year's calculation of the magnitude of the year-on-year change is distorted, and the actual economic performance may not be as bad as the surface data show.

Lu political commissar believes that the volume of exports to all economies in a neat way down, appears to be related to the Spring Festival holiday, but the total value of imports and the year-on-year decline were 16.7% and 8% respectively. The import decline has narrowed. The Spring Festival can not only affect exports but not affect imports. This shows that the "diving" again has little to do with the Spring Festival.

In addition, Lu commissar further pointed out to reporters that the import demand of the US, EU and other economies has not deteriorated further since 2014, and the import decline of Russia and India economies has also narrowed recently. This shows that China's export environment has not been further deteriorated. It can be said that the export decline in February exceeded expectations and had little to do with external demand.

It is worth noting that in the analysis report on the characteristics of China's foreign trade in the first two months of this year, the General Administration of Customs specifically mentioned that the export of traditional labor-intensive products such as mechanical and electrical products, textiles and garments decreased.

In the first two months, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 1 trillion and 110 billion yuan, down 12.2%, accounting for 56.6% of the total export value.

In the same period, clothing exports were 157 billion 50 million yuan, down 11.8%; textiles 100 billion 530 million yuan, down 9.3%; footwear 52 billion 80 million yuan, 17.3%; furniture 51 billion 790 million yuan, 17.8%; plastic products 34 billion 950 million yuan, fell 11%; bag and luggage 25 billion 630 million yuan, decreased 25 billion 630 million; toy yuan yuan, growth;

In the view of Lu commissar, the export of textile, clothing, footwear and other labor-intensive products increased significantly, while the export of technology intensive export such as automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits was relatively stable. This may mean that the rise of labor costs in China is eroding the competitive advantage of labor-intensive industries.

It is worth mentioning that in March 7th, the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics said that in addition to the impact of weak external demand, the new trade rules and industry standards also brought challenges to China's steady growth in foreign trade.

Low profile foreign trade entered "13th Five-Year"

For this year's foreign trade work, in March 5th, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council put forward in the "government work report" that the main target of this year's development is "stable import and export, and basically balanced international payments".

The reporter noted that the foreign trade objective of the 2015 government work report was about 6% increase in imports and exports, but no specific growth data targets were set up this year.

Regarding this, Bai Ming told reporters: "in the case of other countries in the world are declining, it is not realistic for our country to maintain growth. It is much better to maintain basic stability than other countries.

This also shows that China (foreign trade) will be "low-key" to enter the "13th Five-Year", without data targets is also a pragmatic manifestation.

In addition, the consultative research team of Ampang also believes that there is no specific figure for foreign trade development goals, which indicates that the future development of foreign trade will be more quality than quantity.

In fact, in addition to China's top 20 trading powers (regions), 18 countries (regions) do not issue annual trade growth forecasts and targets.

As for the specific measures to achieve a stable return to foreign trade, this year's "government work report" proposes: optimize the export tax rebate rate structure, ensure timely and full tax rebates, encourage business mode innovation, optimize the trade structure, promote trade facilitation, and implement a more active import policy.

The former official website of the National Bureau of statistics also put forward that China should actively promote the "one belt and one way" construction to expand external demand on the one hand. On the other hand, we should make use of external pressure to accelerate the adjustment of industry and product mix in China. We should innovate in technology, improve technology and strengthen environmental protection, and strive to solve the problem of oversupply of low-end products and insufficient supply of high-end products.

"The downturn in foreign trade is likely to continue for some time.

The focus of the future is to create new advantages for the interior and create new space for the outside world.

The new advantage is to lay a solid foundation for Industry and attach importance to brand and quality improvement.

Besides the physical space of "one belt and one road" and free trade zone, the new space also includes the right to speak on the rules of international trade.

Bai Ming told reporters.