Amazing! PX Industry Will Change Dramatically. How Far Is Self Sufficiency From Us?

Recently, the business community issued the "PX 2019 big data inventory". All these data reflect the huge impact of large scale refinery operations on the PX industry. 

In 2019, the price of PX fell sharply by 21.18%. At the beginning of the year, the price was 8500 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 6700 yuan / ton, and the annual decrease was 21.18%. The lowest price of PX in 2019 was 6600 yuan / ton in September 3rd, the highest price was 9000 yuan / ton in March 12th, and the maximum amplitude was 36.36%.

PX products in 2019, the annual profit of 10 U.S. dollars / ton, the highest profit in April was 240 U.S. dollars / ton, the lowest profit in November was -70 U.S. dollars / ton, but the high profit mainly concentrated in January -4 months.

In 2019, the domestic PX production capacity was as high as 20 million 365 thousand tons. In 2019, the domestic refining and chemical plant in Hainan increased by 1 million tons. In addition, the output of Hong Run chemical industry increased by 600 thousand tons, the new capacity of Hengli petrochemical plant increased by 4 million 500 thousand tons, and the output of other units did not change, but the domestic output was only about 15 million tons.

In 2019, the overall operation rate of PX in China was around 7.3, and the 1 million 600 thousand ton plant in Fuhai started a 800 thousand ton production line. In 2019, the Urumqi petrochemical plant started at 5, the Hainan refining and chemical plant was put into operation in October, and Hengli Petrochemical started 2 million 250 thousand tons, and the domestic PX started at 7.3 level.

In 2019, domestic PX's dependence on foreign trade dropped to 48%. According to statistics, the total import volume of PX was about 14 million tons in 2019, domestic output was about 15 million tons, and external dependence remained as high as 48%, but 2019 was the year when PX's external dependence declined.

As Hengli refinery and other large private refinery giants have been put into operation, PX has become the largest variety of chemical products in the next few years. The PX industry in China will usher in a great change.

P X Industry pattern will face great changes

In 13th Five-Year, China made clear plans to focus on the construction of seven major petrochemical industrial bases, promote the integration of refining and chemical industry, and promote the efficient development of green and petrochemical industries. In the plan, we formulated the strategic goal of increasing the PX self-sufficiency rate to 65% to 70% by 2020, and clearly developing the layout plan of PX enterprises.

From 2019 to 2020, China's PX production capacity was concentrated in a blowout development period, with the expected production capacity reaching 22 million 600 thousand tons. In 2019, it put into operation 11 million 800 thousand tons (the first half). Constant force 4 million 500 thousand tons Smooth operation Sinochem Hong run 800 thousand tons And Hainan refinery 1 million tons 8, commissioning in September. Zhejiang Petrochemical 4 million tons One Qualified products were reorganized at the end of January. Heng Yi Brunei 1 million 500 thousand tons Put into operation in early November) Capacity growth 70.4% This is the highest growth rate in recent years. In 2020, it is estimated that the production capacity has reached the level of 10 million tons, which will completely change the domestic supply and demand pattern.

The smooth commissioning of the expected capacity will greatly improve our external dependence on PX and other chemical products. China's new PX enterprises have comprehensive advantages such as superior location, large scale of operation, perfect industrial chain, low unit production cost, convenient payment and settlement of RMB. The centralization of new domestic PX enterprises will lead the PX profit level to a slight profit. Once the negative profits are made, some foreign refineries will be forced to stop or reduce their profits. As a result, the ratio of localization of PX resources in 2020 will rise to around 7.

PX under high production cycle How far is it from self-sufficiency?

PX is the main raw material for the production of PTA, and it is irreplaceable. Its dependence on foreign trade has been very high. By the end of 2018, domestic output was less than half of the demand. Although the external dependence of domestic PX dropped to 48% in 2019, there was still a long way to go to achieve self-sufficiency. In the next few years, PX will usher in the domestic production capacity amplification cycle, and the market share will gradually increase. With the continuous increase of PX's new capacity, PX will be in short supply or will enter the stage of supply and demand even or over.

On the supply side, there are more PX projects in China since 2019. If new projects are carried out as planned, China's PX will develop rapidly in the next 2019-2021 years, and domestic sources of goods will compete fiercely with imported goods. In 2022, the overcapacity of PX will gradually begin to appear.

Demand side, PTA side, at present, the new capacity to enter the launch of the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand tons / year device, 2019-2023 years of China's PTA production capacity mostly concentrated in 2020, the overall demand for PX surge in time is also concentrated in 2020.

Under the dual function of rapid release of domestic PX output and slow withdrawal of imports, the overall supply capacity of PX has increased rapidly. China's PX capacity will reach 56 million 130 thousand tons / year in 2023. And the PTA capacity is 78 million 790 thousand tons / year. The situation of high import dependence will be significantly improved, and domestic PX imports will show a sharp downward trend.